Key Highlights
- Nokia’s Q1 comparable operating profit soared 54% year-over-year to €281M, surpassing analyst projections
- AI and cloud revenue expanded 49%, while the company secured €1B in fresh orders during the period
- Network Infrastructure growth forecast upgraded to 12–14% and Optical+IP outlook increased to 18–20%
- Shares reached their highest level since 2010, climbing nearly 7% during Helsinki trading
- Northland set new $13 price target; Calamos, Millennium, and Goldman Sachs expanded their holdings
Nokia achieved a 16-year milestone in stock performance following a robust first-quarter showing, with AI and optical networking momentum propelling results beyond market forecasts.
The company reported comparable operating profit of €281 million for Q1 2026, representing a 54% year-over-year increase and exceeding the analyst consensus of €250 million. Total net sales climbed to €4.5 billion, marking a 4% annual advance.
Earnings per share aligned with the $0.06 consensus projection. Revenue totaled $5.27 billion, substantially outpacing the $4.59 billion analyst estimate.
Shares advanced nearly 7% during early Helsinki trading on April 23, reaching the highest point since April 2010. On the NYSE, NOK gained 1.4% to close at $10.48 on Friday, within a 52-week range spanning $4.00 to $10.90.
Revenue from AI and cloud customers expanded 49% during the quarter. Nokia secured €1 billion in new AI and cloud contracts, achieving a book-to-bill ratio exceeding 1.0.
AI Market Opportunity Expanded Significantly
Nokia updated its projection for the AI and cloud addressable market to reflect a 27% compound annual growth rate spanning 2025 to 2028. This marks a substantial increase from the 16% estimate provided during the November 2025 investor event.
Network Infrastructure segment revenue guidance received an upward revision to 12–14% growth for 2026, compared with the previous 6–8% forecast. The Optical and IP segment projection was elevated to 18–20%.
Optical Networks achieved 20% revenue growth during Q1. The Infinera integration process is progressing ahead of expectations, and Nokia introduced an expanded product portfolio featuring a multi-rail amplifier and modular optical engines.
CEO Justin Hotard indicated the company is “currently tracking somewhat above the mid-point” of its full-year comparable operating profit guidance range of €2.0–2.5 billion.
A second indium-phosphide manufacturing facility in San Jose is scheduled to begin production later this year to boost optical capacity.
Wall Street Upgrades and Institutional Accumulation
Northland elevated its price objective on NOK to $13 from $10, highlighting strengthening AI optical connectivity demand. Bank of America upgraded the stock to “buy” with a $12.40 target earlier in April.
Analyst consensus currently stands at “Moderate Buy” based on 17 analysts, comprising 10 buy ratings, 6 hold ratings, and 1 sell rating. The average price target is positioned at $8.83, though multiple recent targets have moved beyond that threshold.
Regarding institutional activity, Calamos Advisors expanded its NOK stake by 28.1% in Q4 to approximately 1.95 million shares. Millennium Management grew its position by over 6,500% in Q1, adding nearly 2.8 million shares. Goldman Sachs acquired just over 1 million shares in Q1, elevating its total holdings to 12.55 million.
Nokia increased its quarterly dividend to $0.0468, up from $0.04. The annualized dividend of $0.19 translates to a yield of approximately 1.8%, with a record date of April 28 and distribution scheduled for May 12.
Management identified semiconductor supply constraints and extended order cycles as potential near-term challenges. Fixed Networks revenue declined 13%, reflecting intentional portfolio optimization.
Short interest in NOK increased approximately 24% in April to around 68.2 million shares, while the days-to-cover ratio remains modest at 0.7.
Nokia’s market capitalization reached approximately $60 billion as of Friday’s market close, with a P/E ratio of 65.29.
