Key Takeaways
- Wolfe Research increased Micron (MU) price target to $500 from $350, representing a 43% increase, before Q2 FY26 earnings on March 18.
- Analyst Chris Caso retained his Outperform rating based on accelerating memory pricing trends.
- DRAM pricing projected to climb approximately 100% year-over-year in 2026; NAND expected to gain roughly 95%.
- Wolfe projects $94B revenue and $44 EPS for 2026, with estimates rising to $125B revenue and $61 EPS in 2027.
- HBM and DDR demand from Nvidia and Google platforms expected to expand 124% in 2026 and 143% in 2027.
Wolfe Research analyst Chris Caso updated his outlook on Micron Technology Tuesday, lifting the price target to $500 from $350 — representing a 43% adjustment — while maintaining his Outperform rating.
The revision arrives in advance of Micron’s Q2 FY26 earnings announcement, set for March 18.
Caso holds the 110th position among over 12,000 analysts monitored by TipRanks, posting a 63% accuracy rate alongside an average 26.6% return per rating across one-year timeframes.
His investment thesis centers on a clear premise: memory pricing is accelerating beyond Wall Street’s initial projections.
Wolfe’s revised forecast anticipates DRAM pricing will climb approximately 100% year-over-year during calendar 2026, while NAND pricing follows with gains near 95%. These substantial increases stem primarily from artificial intelligence demand, according to the firm.
Artificial Intelligence Driving Memory Expansion
Caso’s research examined memory requirements for Nvidia and Google platforms, analyzing both HBM and DDR memory specifications across their product roadmaps extending through 2027.
The projections reveal substantial growth. Total DDR and HBM usage across these platforms should expand approximately 124% during 2026, followed by an additional 143% increase in 2027.
DDR5 technology has emerged as a significant AI DRAM catalyst alongside HBM, Wolfe observed — an important distinction because it broadens the overall market opportunity for Micron’s offerings.
AI applications continue demanding higher memory capacity per processor. Growing model complexity requires greater memory resources for operation — positioning Micron as a primary supplier.
Revenue and Earnings Projections from Wolfe
Wolfe currently forecasts $94 billion revenue and $44 earnings per share for Micron during calendar year 2026. These figures advance to $125 billion revenue and $61 EPS in 2027.
With shares trading around $403, the stock represents approximately 6.6 times Wolfe’s 2027 EPS projection — a valuation the firm considers compelling given the anticipated growth path.
The firm presented an optimistic scenario as well. Should commodity DRAM pricing jump 150% year-over-year in 2026, revenue could reach $160 billion in 2027 alongside $80 EPS. Interestingly, this 150% projection remains conservative compared to Trendforce’s current 166% forecast.
Wolfe joins several optimistic firms. Aletheia Capital recently elevated its Micron target to $650. UBS increased its projection to $475, highlighting memory supply limitations extending through 2028. Stifel established a $550 target based on robust memory pricing trends and server DDR5 adoption.
Among 27 Wall Street analysts covering Micron, the consensus stands at Strong Buy — comprising 26 Buy ratings and one Hold. The mean price target reaches $438.44, suggesting approximately 8.76% potential appreciation from present levels.
Regarding product developments, Micron recently delivered customer samples of 256GB SOCAMM2 modules — representing the highest-capacity LPDRAM server modules in the company’s history. These modules enable up to 2TB of LPDRAM per 8-channel server CPU configuration.
