Key Takeaways
- Arthur Hayes describes the crypto market as untradeable due to AI workforce displacement and US-Iran tensions
- Three distinct scenarios could drive Bitcoin toward the $80,000–$90,000 range
- Hayes waits for Federal Reserve monetary expansion signals before purchasing additional Bitcoin
- Current portfolio additions focus solely on gold and Hyperliquid’s HYPE token
- Hayes forecasts Hyperliquid capturing market share from Polymarket and Kalshi
Arthur Hayes, who co-founded BitMEX and serves as CIO of Maelstrom, reports minimal trading activity during the opening quarter of 2025. In an April 15 publication, he characterizes the present cryptocurrency landscape as untradeable.
He identifies two primary factors driving his conservative stance: artificial intelligence agents displacing knowledge-based workers, and escalating US-Iran tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
Hayes anticipates that AI-driven workforce replacement will spark widespread consumer credit failures. He draws parallels to the economic devastation witnessed during the 2008 subprime mortgage meltdown.
He notes corporate staff reductions are already underway. Hayes highlighted a crypto gaming executive who leveraged AI to accomplish a six-month development timeline in just four days, subsequently reducing headcount by half.
US median unemployment compensation sits around $28,000 annually. The median knowledge worker commands $85,000 to $90,000 in earnings. Hayes projects this income disparity will generate widespread loan failures across banking institutions.
Three Pathways for Bitcoin
Hayes presents three potential scenarios connected to the conflict.
The first scenario involves war cessation with a return to stability. However, AI-driven deflation persists, ultimately requiring Federal Reserve monetary expansion to avert banking system collapse.
The second scenario sees Iran maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz while imposing transit fees denominated in yuan, cryptocurrency, or gold. Countries liquidate US dollar holdings to cover these charges, creating downward pressure on treasuries, equities, and Bitcoin.
The third scenario involves US military forces eliminating Iran’s capacity to control the strait. Hayes projects Iran would respond by targeting Gulf energy facilities, compelling global central banks toward monetary expansion.
Across all three scenarios, Hayes expects monetary expansion to materialize. However, he refuses to purchase Bitcoin before Federal Reserve action. He projects Bitcoin could surge toward $80,000–$90,000, though current risk-reward metrics remain unfavorable.
Hayes Commits to Gold and HYPE
Bitcoin has climbed over 7% during the past week, trading above $75,000. Hayes acknowledges this modest outperformance against US software equities shows promise, though insufficient to alter his strategic position.
He monitors one primary indicator: the MOVE Index, which measures US bond market volatility. Should it climb above 130, he anticipates some form of monetary expansion will follow.
Currently, Maelstrom exclusively acquires gold and Hyperliquid’s HYPE token. Gold trades near $4,830, gaining approximately 1% during the day. HYPE has surged 18% over the past week, reaching $45.31.
Hayes expects Hyperliquid’s forthcoming HIP-4 launch will catalyze a substantial HYPE rally. He forecasts the platform capturing market share from prediction market rivals Polymarket and Kalshi.
HYPE has climbed 18% over the past seven days, trading at $45.31 at time of writing.
