Key Highlights
- TotalEnergies secured over $1 billion in profits through the purchase of approximately 70 crude oil shipments from UAE and Oman during March
- Conflict-driven closures of the Strait of Hormuz reduced deliverable benchmark crude supply by approximately 40%
- Dubai crude pricing skyrocketed from approximately $70 to peak levels around $170 per barrel throughout the disruption period
- TTE shares have advanced more than 10% over the past month and climbed over 35% since January
- Wall Street analysts maintain a Moderate Buy rating on TTE shares with a consensus price target of $84.31
TTE shares are currently exchanging hands near the $89 level, reflecting gains exceeding 35% year to date.
TotalEnergies (TTE) captured profits exceeding $1 billion during March through large-scale crude oil acquisitions throughout the Middle East, capitalizing on war-related disruptions that halted shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz and triggered dramatic price increases.
Reporting from the Financial Times indicates TotalEnergies traders acquired approximately 70 crude shipments from UAE and Oman sources — exceeding February purchase volumes by more than twofold — designated for May delivery schedules. Oxford energy specialist Adi Imsirovic characterized the move as among the largest positions ever established in global oil markets.
The company has chosen to withhold commentary regarding its trading operations.
The profit opportunity emerged from a fundamental disruption in Middle Eastern oil pricing mechanisms. S&P Global Platts, administrator of the Dubai crude benchmark — the primary pricing reference for Asian oil purchases — halted nominations of crude grades requiring Strait of Hormuz transit on March 2, following decisions by major shipping operators to suspend passage due to safety considerations.
Three among the five crude grades comprising the benchmark calculation were removed from availability. This action reduced deliverable supply by roughly 40%, leaving exclusively Abu Dhabi’s Murban and Oman crude as eligible options.
With market liquidity dramatically constrained, the trading environment became significantly susceptible to concentrated positions. TotalEnergies capitalized on this opening.
Execution of the Strategic Position
Dubai crude advanced from approximately $70 per barrel immediately preceding the conflict to record highs around $170 last week. Brent crude reached peak levels around $120 per barrel during mid-March before moderating to roughly $113.
Although benchmark window trading activity registered approximately 50% higher volume compared to the previous month, TotalEnergies emerged as the sole participant to accumulate sufficient partial contracts for assembling a complete cargo, according to FT reporting.
The firm additionally deployed futures and options instruments to manage risk exposure and establish positions ahead of the price escalation, based on Imsirovic’s assessment.
TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné stated during a CNBC interview last week that global markets had “never experienced” refining margins at present levels, characterizing the oil products market as “dislocated.” He projected that should the conflict extend through summer months, European natural gas prices could reach $40 per million British thermal units — exceeding double the current approximately $18 levels.
Regarding production operations, TotalEnergies announced on March 13 that output had been discontinued or was undergoing shutdown procedures in Qatar, Iraq and offshore UAE facilities — representing roughly 15% of worldwide output. The company clarified that these Middle East volumes constitute approximately 10% of upstream cash flow generation due to elevated taxation structures, and that an $8 per barrel Brent increase would completely compensate for the production loss.
Wall Street Perspective on TTE
Platts implemented an additional measure on March 20 to strengthen the Dubai benchmark, eliminating the negative quality adjustment for Murban crude to expand deliverable supply. The agency reported receiving widespread support from market participants for this adjustment.
During the previous week, Jefferies analyst Mark Wilson maintained a Buy recommendation on TTE, emphasizing the Rio Grande LNG project as a strategic long-term asset featuring competitive cost advantages. Wilson projected that LNG supply disruptions in Qatar and the UAE would affect 2026 cash flow by approximately $200 million — a controllable impact, according to his analysis.
TTE presently carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating on TipRanks, supported by 10 Buy ratings, 8 Hold ratings and 1 Sell rating issued during the past three months. The consensus price target registers at $84.31 — approximately 6% beneath current trading levels.
