TLDR
- USDC commands 64% of adjusted transaction volume between the two leading stablecoins, per Mizuho’s year-to-date analysis
- Circle’s stablecoin leads transaction volume metrics for the first time since 2019
- Tether maintains market capitalization advantage with $184 billion compared to USDC’s $79 billion
- Circle stock price target increased from $100 to $120 by Mizuho Securities
- Transaction volume serves as a stronger indicator of long-term stablecoin leadership than market cap, according to Mizuho
Japanese investment bank Mizuho published research on Friday, March 13, revealing that Circle’s USDC stablecoin has surpassed Tether’s USDT in adjusted transaction volume during the current year.
The development represents USDC’s first volume leadership position since 2019, reversing years of USDT dominance across this metric.
Mizuho’s research quantifies USDC’s adjusted transaction volume at approximately $2.2 trillion year-to-date, while USDT recorded $1.3 trillion during the identical timeframe.
This performance translates to USDC holding a 64% share when measuring adjusted volume between both major stablecoins, based on Mizuho’s calculations.
The investment bank’s methodology defines “adjusted volume” as transactions involving centralized exchanges, decentralized exchanges, and identified entities — along with users below specific activity thresholds. The metric focuses on transfers resembling genuine economic activity from real individuals or organizations.
Mizuho’s analysts cited several use case examples: businesses compensating suppliers, participants wagering on prediction platforms such as Polymarket, and capital flowing between centralized exchanges and DeFi protocols.
What the Volume Shift Means
Mizuho’s research team emphasized that transaction volume provides superior predictive value compared to market capitalization when assessing long-term stablecoin leadership.
“We believe that longer term, the stablecoin winner will be the one mostly used in everyday economic activity, rather than just the highest market cap,” Mizuho wrote.
Tether continues to command the market capitalization category. USDT’s total value stands at approximately $184 billion, while USDC holds $79 billion.
Circle completed its public listing on the New York Stock Exchange in June 2025. The company’s share price showed minimal reaction immediately following Mizuho’s research publication.
The same research note included Mizuho’s revised price target for Circle, moving from $100 to $120 per share.
Circle Stock and the Regulatory Backdrop
Legislative efforts that could establish frameworks for the stablecoin sector remain delayed in Washington.
The CLARITY Act secured passage through the House of Representatives but faces obstacles in the Senate. Discussions surrounding stablecoin yield provisions, ethics standards, and tokenized equity regulations have created procedural slowdowns.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune announced Thursday that the chamber would advance voting requirements legislation ahead of digital asset market structure proposals. His statement indicated the market structure bill would likely remain unresolved before April.
Ongoing legislative delays contribute additional uncertainty to stablecoin regulatory frameworks while Circle shares continue NYSE trading.
According to Mizuho’s March 13, 2026 research publication, USDC maintains a 64% share of adjusted transaction volume when measured against its primary competitor, marking its first leadership position in this category since 2019.
