Key Highlights
- Needham reduced HOOD price target from $100 to $90 while maintaining Buy rating
- Compass Point lowered target from $127 to $108, keeping Buy rating intact
- March data revealed declining momentum in equity, options, and crypto trading
- Shares have declined 52% over six months and 38% year-to-date
- Banking segment reports deposits exceeding $1.5 billion milestone
Robinhood experienced a challenging trading week as several Wall Street firms adjusted their outlooks following the company’s March performance report that missed expectations.
On Wednesday, Needham’s John Todaro revised his price target downward from $100 to $90 while maintaining his Buy recommendation. His analysis highlighted deceleration across most of the company’s trading segments.
“We see HOOD as the farthest along financial services platform in becoming a financial super app, but the recent volume metrics and lowered net interest revenue reflect a more muted environment,” Todaro wrote.
The March statistics, published on March 30, revealed equity notional trading volumes reaching approximately $196 billion. Options contract volume registered 187 million trades, while crypto notional trading volumes totaled $16 billion.
Todaro adjusted his Q1 2026 forecasts lower for equities and options activity while maintaining his crypto projections unchanged, noting that declines in digital assets were already factored into previous models. His updated revenue outlook for 2026 and 2027 reflects expectations for decreased trading activity and diminished net interest income.
The revised $90 target applies a 27x multiple to Needham’s discounted fiscal 2027 EV/EBITDA calculation.
This adjustment came one day after Wolfe Research’s Steven Chubak lowered his target from $115 to $81—representing approximately 30% downward revision. Chubak’s move followed declining crypto transaction revenues amid broader digital asset market weakness.
Compass Point Adjusts Outlook
Compass Point’s Ed Engel similarly revised his price objective Wednesday, moving from $127 to $108 while retaining a Buy recommendation. His financial models project Q1 revenue falling 9% short of Street consensus, with shortfalls spanning all three business divisions.
Engel observed that retail trading activity typically decelerates following five to six straight months of volatile market conditions, with most retail-favored equities showing weakness since early October.
He referenced April 2025, when analysts broadly reduced forecasts ahead of Liberation Day. Engel believes a market turnaround could position Robinhood favorably considering the robust 2026 IPO calendar.
HOOD shares have dropped 52% during the past six months and trade 46% beneath their 52-week peak of $153.86. The equity carries a P/E multiple of 34.14 with a market capitalization of $63.1 billion. InvestingPro currently labels the stock as overvalued relative to fundamentals.
Banking Segment Shows Positive Growth
Amid the trading headwinds, Robinhood’s banking operations have surpassed $1.5 billion in customer deposits, serving nearly 100,000 funded accounts—representing approximately 50% growth in deposits over the recent reporting period.
Bernstein SocGen Group adjusted its price objective from $160 to $130 while maintaining an Outperform stance. The firm continues forecasting 25% earnings per share expansion by 2026 and a 30% revenue compound annual growth rate spanning 2025 through 2027.
Jefferies launched coverage with a Buy rating and $88 price target, highlighting opportunities from expanding global retail market participation and the company’s comprehensive product portfolio.
According to TipRanks, HOOD receives a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 15 Buy recommendations and 2 Hold ratings, with an average price target of $117.33—suggesting approximately 67% potential upside from present trading levels. The Street-high target reaches $147.
Management is scheduled to report complete Q1 financial results in May.
