Key Takeaways
- AppLovin shares climbed 2.21% during premarket hours Wednesday, reaching $406.80, following a 40.93% decline year to date.
- Tech sector sentiment improved as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East showed signs of cooling, lifting major indices.
- Evercore ISI’s channel checks with 10 user acquisition operators revealed fundamentals remain strong despite stock price weakness.
- 80% of surveyed contacts anticipate increasing their AppLovin user acquisition budget allocation within the next 6 to 12 months.
- Technical indicators show weakness — APP trades 26.9% under its 100-day moving average, RSI reads 40.80, and MACD remains negative.
AppLovin shares moved higher during Wednesday’s premarket session, adding 2.21% to reach $406.80 following a challenging period that saw the stock tumble approximately 41% from the beginning of the year.
The recovery aligned with strength across technology equities, as Nasdaq futures advanced 1.10% early Wednesday while S&P 500 futures climbed 0.80%. Market sentiment lifted following indications that Middle East geopolitical conflicts may be de-escalating.
President Donald Trump indicated the U.S. military campaign in the region could conclude “within two or three weeks.” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed willingness to pursue peace, contingent on receiving security assurances. The White House announced Trump will deliver a national address at 9:00 p.m. ET Wednesday.
Federal Reserve policy expectations remained steady. The CME FedWatch tool indicated a 99.5% probability of unchanged rates in April. Economist Jeremy Siegel recommended investors maintain defensive positioning until energy market volatility subsides.
Evercore’s Ground-Level Research Reveals Positive Momentum
While the stock has suffered significant losses, Evercore ISI analyst Robert Coolbrith suggested the decline appears disconnected from underlying business performance based on industry feedback.
Evercore conducted 10 comprehensive discussions with user acquisition operators between March 18 and March 30 — engaging decision makers from game publishers, developers, and games-focused agencies throughout North America, Europe, and MENA. The participants collectively oversee approximately $1.9 billion in annual user acquisition expenditures.
Eight participants indicated they anticipate AppLovin will capture a larger portion of their UA budgets during the coming 6 to 12 months. Three of these eight respondents projected wallet share increases ranging from 3 to 5 percentage points. Two respondents acknowledged AppLovin’s current budget allocation should already be 10 to 15 points higher based purely on return on advertiser spend performance.
Multiple respondents highlighted late Q4 product adjustments as beneficial developments. One mentioned modifications to retargeting windows, while three others identified “creative clustering” as a significant advancement.
Recent Platform Updates Continue Influencing Spending Decisions
Product enhancements rolled out earlier in 2025 continue affecting budget allocation patterns. Five respondents noted that transitioning campaign objectives from CPI to CPM has enhanced budget fulfillment and campaign scalability. Four highlighted the shift to D28 optimization from D7 as an ongoing advantage. Two of these respondents expressed interest in AppLovin extending the optimization window to D60.
Coolbrith maintained his Outperform rating alongside a $750 price target.
Chart Analysis Shows Continued Pressure
From a technical perspective, APP faces headwinds. The stock trades 11.2% beneath its 20-day moving average and 26.9% below its 100-day moving average. The RSI registers 40.80 — neutral territory with slight weakness. MACD stands at -19.09 and continues trading below its signal line.
APP’s 52-week trading range extends from $200.50 to $745.61. Resistance appears at $473.50, while support emerges at $366.50. The stock has gained 40.79% during the trailing 12 months despite the year-to-date downturn.
Coolbrith’s $750 price target implies an 84% upside from Wednesday’s premarket level.
