Key Highlights
- Thursday’s earnings report from TSMC could deliver a fourth consecutive record-breaking quarter, with analysts projecting net profit of T$542.6 billion (approximately $17.1 billion).
- The projected earnings represent approximately 50% growth in net profit compared to Q1 2025.
- Bank of America Securities increased its target price from $470 to $500 while reaffirming its Buy recommendation.
- First-quarter revenue results released earlier exceeded analyst expectations, showing 35% year-over-year growth.
- Shares traded in Taipei have climbed 28% since January, outperforming the market’s 22% advance.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company approaches Thursday’s quarterly results announcement with strong performance indicators. Market analysts anticipate the semiconductor giant will deliver net profit of T$542.6 billion ($17.1 billion) for the first quarter of 2026 — representing approximately 50% expansion compared to the corresponding period in 2025.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, TSM
The earnings projection stems from LSEG SmartEstimate methodology, which assigns greater weight to analysts who have demonstrated superior forecasting accuracy. Should TSMC report results exceeding T$505.7 billion, the company will establish a new record for quarterly net income.
The achievement would extend the chipmaker’s profit growth streak to nine consecutive quarters.
Earlier preliminary disclosures from the company revealed first-quarter revenue climbing 35% year-over-year — surpassing consensus analyst projections.
Customer appetite for TSMC’s 3-nanometre chip technology and cutting-edge packaging capabilities continues to exceed current production capacity. The primary catalyst remains the global expansion of AI infrastructure.
TSMC’s market valuation currently reaches approximately $1.6 trillion — representing nearly twice the market capitalization of Samsung Electronics. The company’s Taipei-traded shares have gained 28% year-to-date, surpassing the broader index’s 22% increase.
BofA Securities Elevates Target to $500
Bank of America Securities announced on April 12 an upward revision of its price target for TSM from $470 to $500, maintaining its Buy rating. The investment firm projects 7%–9% sequential sales expansion in Q2, attributed to robust high-performance computing demand.
The bank also anticipates gross margin improvement from the 63%–65% range recorded in Q1 to approximately 66% in the second quarter.
Arthur Lai, who leads Asia technology research at Macquarie Capital, indicated his expectation for TSMC to project stronger sequential revenue growth in Q2 guidance — citing persistent AI-related demand and the company’s technological leadership in advanced manufacturing processes.
Investors will pay particular attention Thursday to any adjustments in TSMC’s 2026 capital expenditure plans. Management’s spending commitments serve as an important indicator of confidence in sustained AI demand trajectories.
The company currently has $165 billion committed to constructing semiconductor fabrication facilities in Arizona. TSMC has also expanded its Japanese operations — transitioning from legacy technology nodes to full-scale 3-nanometre production capabilities at that location.
Valuation Considerations for Investors
Several metrics warrant investor attention. GuruFocus calculates TSMC’s intrinsic value at $280.17, suggesting the current trading price of $370.60 reflects approximately 32% premium to fundamental value based on that analysis.
The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 30.19x — considerably elevated compared to its five-year median of 22.55x.
GuruFocus assigns TSMC a comprehensive GF Score of 98 out of 100, awarding perfect 10/10 ratings for both profitability metrics and growth characteristics. The financial strength category receives a 9/10 score.
Corporate insider transactions over the most recent three-month period show $709,180 in purchases with no recorded sales activity.
Regarding supply chain considerations, ongoing Middle East conflict has generated concerns about potential disruptions to critical semiconductor materials including helium and neon. IDC analyst Galen Zeng indicated that TSMC’s diversified supplier network and strategic inventory reserves should provide adequate buffer against near-term supply interruptions.
Management will conduct its earnings conference call at 0600 GMT Thursday, during which the company will provide Q2 guidance along with revised full-year projections.
