Key Highlights
- TotalEnergies (TTE) gained approximately 3% during premarket hours following positive Q1 guidance
- Elevated oil and gas prices projected to contribute $2–$2.5 billion to working capital during the quarter
- Middle East tensions resulted in approximately 100,000 bpd production decline, representing roughly 15% of overall output
- LNG performance forecast to significantly exceed Q4 levels, supported by 10% output increase and robust trading activity
- European refining margins reached $11.40 per ton, marking a 192% year-over-year increase; complete quarterly report scheduled for April 29
TotalEnergies (TTE) announced Thursday that first-quarter earnings are projected to show substantial growth, powered by elevated energy prices and vigorous LNG trading activity, despite production disruptions stemming from the continuing Middle East crisis.
Shares of the French energy giant’s U.S.-listed stock rose approximately 3% in premarket trading after the announcement.
According to the company, Q1 production levels are anticipated to remain relatively stable at approximately 2.55 million barrels of oil equivalent per day when compared to the previous quarter.
The conflict involving Iran has compelled TotalEnergies to reduce or suspend operations across Qatar, Iraq, and offshore United Arab Emirates. Additionally, a refinery facility in Saudi Arabia was shuttered recently following damage from the conflict. Combined, these disruptions are removing approximately 100,000 barrels per day from production capacity — equivalent to roughly 15% of total output.
New project launches in Libya and Brazil are providing partial compensation for these losses.
Price Gains and Trading Activity Drive Earnings
Despite facing production constraints, TotalEnergies indicated that elevated hydrocarbon prices are anticipated to contribute between $2 billion and $2.5 billion to working capital throughout the quarter.
LNG performance is projected to substantially surpass Q4 figures. The company attributed this to 10% production expansion and vigorous trading operations, with market volatility creating favorable conditions.
European refining margins for Q1 averaged $11.40 per ton — representing a 192% increase from $3.90 during the same period last year, and exceeding analyst projections. Refinery utilization rates operated above 90%.
Integrated Power results are anticipated at approximately $500 million, remaining relatively stable compared to the prior year. Marketing and Services performance is also expected to align with last year’s corresponding period.
Market Expert Perspectives
Jefferies analyst Mark Wilson characterized the announcement as a “small positive,” noting that TotalEnergies seems to be managing working capital challenges more effectively than certain competitors, including Shell and BP.
Wilson suggested the possibility of approximately 10% outperformance relative to Q1 consensus net income of €4.8 billion. He identified LNG trading as the primary catalyst for upside potential.
TotalEnergies has scheduled the release of complete first-quarter results for April 29.
