Key Takeaways
- Stock prices for Visa, Mastercard, and American Express have declined 18–23% from peak valuations following concerns about stablecoin competition and proposed regulatory changes
- BVNK, a stablecoin infrastructure company, was purchased by Mastercard in a deal valued at up to $1.8 billion
- A crypto command-line interface for AI agent transactions was introduced by Visa, while its contactless payment technology now represents 80% of in-person purchases
- The Machine Payments Protocol was unveiled by Stripe and blockchain firm Tempo, supported by $500M in capital
- Financial experts continue to forecast earnings expansion in the low double digits for payment card corporations in 2026, with aggregate revenue expected to reach $163 billion
The three dominant payment card corporations in America have experienced significant market value erosion from their all-time peaks. Visa’s valuation has contracted by 19%, Mastercard by 18%, and American Express by 23%. The decline stems from two primary catalysts: a proposed 10% ceiling on credit card interest rates advanced by President Trump, and mounting anxiety that digital stablecoins could disrupt established payment processing models.
Stablecoins enable businesses to finalize transactions more rapidly and economically compared to conventional card infrastructure. This capability has created unease among shareholders. The card companies, however, are taking aggressive action to adapt to this emerging landscape.
Mastercard announced its purchase of BVNK, a provider of stablecoin payment infrastructure, in a transaction worth up to $1.8 billion. This represents the biggest acquisition in the stablecoin sector to date. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Sanjay Sakhrani described the move as “a critical, long-term strategic move” that establishes Mastercard as a connector between conventional payment systems and stablecoin networks.
Visa has pursued similar initiatives. The company’s contactless payment technology, which incorporates stablecoin functionality, now represents 80% of all in-person payment activity. Additionally, Visa introduced Visa CLI, a command-line interface enabling artificial intelligence agents to execute card transactions directly through terminal systems.
Autonomous AI Systems Enter the Payment Ecosystem
The transformation extends beyond traditional boundaries. This week, Stripe partnered with blockchain company Tempo to introduce the Machine Payments Protocol, an open framework allowing artificial intelligence agents to independently purchase services—including API access, data subscriptions, and computational resources—by consolidating numerous microtransactions into single blockchain settlements.
Tempo secured $500 million in funding at a $5 billion valuation last October. Matt Huang, co-founder of Paradigm and a member of Stripe’s board, serves as Tempo’s chief executive.
The protocol’s founding partners include Anthropic, OpenAI, DoorDash, Shopify, Revolut, along with both Visa and Mastercard. The two payment processing leaders are participating as partners in this initiative rather than purely as rivals.
Morgan Stanley estimates that autonomous commerce facilitated by AI agents could account for $385 billion in U.S. online retail by 2030. Stablecoin transaction volumes reached $33 trillion throughout 2025, representing a 72% increase compared to the previous year.
Implications for Payment Processing Companies
A February 2026 analysis from Citrini Research highlighted a specific vulnerability: artificial intelligence agents, optimized for cost efficiency, may detect the 2–3% interchange fees imposed by Visa and Mastercard and redirect payment flows through stablecoin channels, where transaction costs measure in fractions of a cent.
Visa handles $17 trillion in annual payment volume. Current forward earnings multiples for Mastercard and Visa stand near 24 and 22 respectively, significantly below their historical trading ranges. American Express trades at approximately 16 times projected earnings.
Financial analysts have modestly increased their 2026 profit projections. They anticipate combined earnings per share for these companies will advance in the low double-digit percentage range, driven by roughly 10% revenue expansion to $163 billion.
Stripe facilitated $1.9 trillion in payment transactions during 2025 and completed its acquisition of Bridge, a stablecoin infrastructure provider, for $1.1 billion, positioning the company to control payment infrastructure rather than depend on card network access.
Huang acknowledged that “agentic payments is very early, and we still are figuring out the best way to structure these.”
