TLDR
- Federal Reserve convenes Wednesday with expectations of maintaining the 3.5%–3.75% rate range, while Powell’s press conference takes center stage
- Crude prices surged past $100 per barrel following Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
- Micron Technology delivers quarterly results Wednesday following a stock surge of over 400% in twelve months
- Earnings calendar includes FedEx, Dollar Tree, Alibaba, and multiple retail companies
- Goldman Sachs projects $93/barrel average for Q4 Brent crude if the Strait remains blocked for two months
Equity markets experienced their third consecutive weekly decline as escalating conflict in Iran drove crude prices to heights last seen during 2022’s energy disruption. The S&P 500 declined 1.6% across the five-day period. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 2%. The Nasdaq Composite shed 1.3%.
Investors now prepare for a calendar heavy with events: a Federal Reserve policy announcement, numerous corporate earnings releases, and Nvidia’s annual developer conference.
The Federal Open Market Committee convenes Wednesday to evaluate monetary policy. Current Fed funds rate stands at 3.5% to 3.75%. Market pricing reflects overwhelming consensus that rates remain at present levels.
Chair Jerome Powell conducts a media briefing following the announcement. Analysts suggest this session could carry greater weight than the rate decision itself.
Powell will likely address internal disagreements among committee members. One faction advocates additional rate reductions citing weakening employment data. Another group expresses concern about potential inflation acceleration driven by energy costs.
This marks Powell’s penultimate scheduled press conference before his chairmanship concludes in May.
Oil and the Strait of Hormuz
The Iranian conflict enters its third week with hostilities continuing. The Strait of Hormuz — a narrow 21-mile passage transporting approximately 14 million barrels daily — remains under blockade.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps has declared its intention to prevent “a liter of oil” from passing through the waterway.
Crude $100 per barrel briefly last Sunday, marking the first triple-digit reading since Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion. Subsequent pullback brought prices into the $80s before renewed climbing followed drone attacks on critical oil facilities and production reduction announcements from Gulf nations.
Goldman Sachs analysis indicates prolonged closure of the Strait for 60 days would push fourth quarter Brent crude to $93 per barrel on average. US West Texas Intermediate would reach $89 under the same scenario.
Wednesday also delivers the Producer Price Index reading for February. January’s data revealed wholesale inflation exceeded forecasts.
Micron and the Earnings Lineup
Micron Technology unveils quarterly results Wednesday. The memory semiconductor manufacturer has seen shares climb more than 400% over twelve months, powered by artificial intelligence hardware requirements. Previous quarter results showed revenue climbing 60% year-over-year while surpassing analyst earnings projections.
FedEx delivers results Thursday. Shares have appreciated nearly 25% year-to-date. Analysts closely monitor FedEx shipping data as an economic indicator.
Dollar Tree also releases earnings, offering insight into American consumer conditions. Management previously characterized shoppers as “stretched” during their last report.
Oklo, a nuclear energy firm, reports Tuesday. The company recently finalized an agreement with Meta to provide electricity for data center operations.
Alibaba announces results Thursday alongside plans to expand AI investment. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer Xpeng follows Friday.
Nvidia’s GTC 2026 conference begins Monday featuring a keynote presentation from CEO Jensen Huang.
