Key Takeaways
- Oppenheimer elevated Blackstone (BX) to “Outperform” from “Market Perform,” establishing a $154 price objective that suggests approximately 34% potential gain from the $114.86 closing level.
- Chris Kotowski, the analyst behind the upgrade, emphasized BX’s impressive performance history dating back to 2009 and praised its unmatched real estate platform.
- The firm delivered fourth-quarter earnings of $1.75 per share, surpassing analyst expectations of $1.54, while revenue reached $4.36B—representing a 41.4% annual increase.
- Holdings IV GP Mana Blackstone, a significant stakeholder, acquired approximately 2.87M shares worth $75M during March, expanding its position by 18.2%.
- Shares currently change hands around $114.86, substantially below the 12-month peak of $190.09, while the Street’s average price objective stands at $155.27.
Blackstone (BX) shares climbed 1.5% during Monday’s opening session following Oppenheimer’s decision to upgrade the alternative investment giant to “Outperform,” characterizing the recent decline as excessive.
Chris Kotowski, the analyst responsible for the rating change, observed that BX has endured significant punishment despite delivering what he characterized as exceptional results. His $154 price objective represents roughly 34% upward potential from Monday’s opening price of $114.86.
Kotowski’s coverage of Blackstone extends back to 2009, and he singled out the company’s real estate division as its crown jewel. He positioned this platform as unrivaled, identifying Brookfield as the closest competitor though still considerably behind.
Both real estate and private credit sectors have experienced diminished investor enthusiasm recently. Oppenheimer’s assessment, however, contends that marketplace concerns regarding these areas are exaggerated.
“The current dislocation is giving investors a chance to buy the industry’s premier franchise at a very attractive valuation,” Kotowski wrote.
He additionally highlighted BX’s “capital light” operational structure as a significant advantage. The firm’s lack of controlling ownership in an insurance subsidiary and minimal balance sheet investments means virtually all profits return to equity holders.
Quarterly Results Support Bullish Case
Blackstone’s latest financial disclosure reinforced the rationale behind the upgrade. Fourth-quarter earnings per share reached $1.75, exceeding the Street’s consensus forecast of $1.54 by $0.21.
Quarterly revenue totaled $4.36B, comfortably above projections of $3.69B and marking a 41.4% gain compared to the prior-year period. The firm also achieved a net margin of 20.89% alongside a 22.17% return on equity.
Analyst projections for the current fiscal year point to full-year EPS of $5.87.
Recent Trading and Sentiment
Regarding insider transactions, Holdings IV GP Mana Blackstone accumulated roughly 2.87 million shares on March 20th at a $26.15 average price, representing approximately $75 million in total value. This purchase expanded their holdings by 18.2%, elevating their total position beyond 18.6 million shares.
In a separate transaction, BX Buzz ML-1 GP LLC divested 7.48 million shares on March 17th—reducing their stake by 99.66%—at a $3.51 average price per share.
Institutional ownership remains substantial, accounting for roughly 70% of outstanding shares.
Analyst opinion across Wall Street displays varied perspectives. TD Cowen lowered its price objective from $164 to $141 while maintaining a “buy” recommendation. Evercore adjusted its target downward from $175 to $170, preserving an “outperform” stance. Barclays established a $124 target accompanied by an “equal weight” rating. JPMorgan decreased its objective to $122 with a “neutral” designation.
The current analyst landscape features eleven buy recommendations and eleven hold ratings. The collective price target across coverage stands at $155.27—representing a “Moderate Buy” consensus view.
Shares presently trade near their 52-week low of $101.73, having retreated considerably from the 12-month high of $190.09. The 50-day moving average sits at $117.75, while the 200-day moving average rests at $141.01.
