Key Takeaways
- Q1 FY26 earnings release scheduled for May 5 after market close
- Analyst consensus points to a $2.35 per share loss with approximately $370 million in revenue, reflecting 57% annual growth
- Implied volatility suggests a 13.3% price movement in either direction following the announcement
- Uber’s stake in Lucid now stands at 11.52%, with a commitment to purchase at least 35,000 vehicles for robotaxi deployment
- Shares have declined 37% in 2025; analysts maintain a Hold consensus with a $13.13 average target price
Lucid Group releases its Q1 FY26 financial results this afternoon following market close. Trading at approximately $6.54, the stock has experienced a 37% decline since January, putting significant pressure on today’s announcement.
Analyst projections call for a $2.35 loss per share, showing modest improvement compared to the $2.40 deficit from the year-ago period. Revenue estimates center around $370 million, marking a substantial 57% increase year-over-year.
While the projected growth rate appears impressive, historical performance warrants caution. The company has fallen short of earnings expectations in six out of the last nine quarterly reports.
The Uber partnership represents a critical narrative for today’s release. Uber expanded its financial commitment by $200 million last month, pushing total investment to $500 million.
The rideshare giant also increased its vehicle commitment to a minimum of 35,000 Lucid units destined for its worldwide robotaxi operations. Recent regulatory disclosures show Uber controlling an 11.52% passive position in Lucid, positioning it as the second-largest investor after Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund.
Market participants are eager to learn the timeline for vehicle deliveries and whether this arrangement will generate meaningful near-term revenue contributions.
Gravity SUV Production Disruption Draws Attention
The Gravity SUV program faces heightened scrutiny following a 29-day delivery suspension during the first quarter caused by supplier complications. This interruption negatively affected delivery volumes despite maintaining solid manufacturing output.
Investors will seek confirmation that the supply chain problem has been fully addressed and the vehicle program has returned to normal operations.
Lucid established a full-year manufacturing goal of 25,000 to 27,000 units. Management’s stance on this guidance during today’s call will likely shape immediate investor sentiment.
RBC Adjusts Expectations Before Results
RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan reduced his valuation target from $10 to $8 while maintaining a Sector Perform rating prior to the earnings release. The adjustment reflects broader headwinds affecting automotive equities, including geopolitical instability in the Middle East.
RBC’s analysis suggests elevated fuel costs could stimulate European EV adoption but anticipates minimal influence in the United States, where subsidy programs continue driving consumer demand.
Current Wall Street coverage includes 10 analysts, with the consensus leaning toward Hold — comprising seven Hold ratings, two Sell recommendations, and one Buy rating issued within the last 90 days.
The mean price target stands at $13.13, suggesting potential upside exceeding 100% from present trading levels.
During the previous quarter, Lucid delivered revenue of $522.7 million, representing 123% annual growth — though results disappointed on both adjusted operating income and EBITDA benchmarks.
