Key Takeaways
- Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket delivered AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird 7 satellite into an orbit too low for sustained operation
- Shares of ASTS fell approximately 14% during Monday’s premarket session
- Insurance coverage will likely offset the satellite’s financial cost, though schedule delays present a greater challenge
- The company requires 45–60 operational satellites to launch commercial service, with only six currently deployed
- Scotiabank’s Andres Coello maintains a Sell stance on ASTS, targeting $41.20 per share—suggesting roughly 52% additional decline potential
AST SpaceMobile encountered a significant obstacle over the weekend when Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket delivered its BlueBird 7 satellite into an incorrect orbital position.
Following separation from the launch vehicle, the satellite successfully activated. However, the orbital altitude proved insufficient for the spacecraft to maintain position using its propulsion system. AST confirmed plans to de-orbit the satellite, allowing atmospheric reentry and controlled destruction.
The company expects its insurance coverage to reimburse the satellite’s construction costs, potentially limiting direct financial damage. The more pressing concern centers on lost time in the constellation deployment schedule.
Shares of ASTS declined approximately 14% in Monday’s premarket hours, trading near $73.96.
AST SpaceMobile is working to establish a satellite network capable of providing space-based 5G connectivity. Commercial operations in northern regions require between 45 and 60 functional satellites. Current on-orbit assets total just six.
Management maintains its goal of deploying approximately 45 satellites by the conclusion of 2026. Sunday’s launch anomaly creates additional pressure on that schedule.
Intensifying Competition in Space Connectivity
The timing of this setback creates additional challenges. SpaceX’s Starlink has already deployed more than one thousand satellites during 2026, while growing its fixed broadband customer base to approximately 10 million subscribers. Starlink continues expanding through carrier partnerships spanning Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania—markets where AST had previously secured initial agreements.
Amazon represents another emerging competitor in the direct-to-device connectivity sector. The company’s recent Globalstar acquisition announcement positions another well-capitalized entrant in the same market segment AST targets, with service projected from 2028 forward.
Blue Origin faces its own reputational challenges following this incident. The company aims to position itself as a viable commercial launch provider competing against SpaceX’s market leadership through reusable rocket technology.
Wall Street Perspective
Scotiabank’s Andres Coello—ranked among the top 1% of Wall Street analysts—maintained a cautious stance on ASTS prior to the weekend’s developments. His Underperform rating accompanies a $41.20 price target, representing approximately 52% downside from Friday’s closing price.
“We recognize the impressive design of the ASTS satellites, but tough competitive dynamics, low ARPUs and high capex intensity aren’t supportive of valuation,” Coello stated. He highlighted ASTS trading at 34x 2027 estimated EV/Sales, exceeding even the estimated SpaceX IPO valuation range of 27x–34x.
Wall Street sentiment remains mixed across the analyst community. Among 11 analysts tracking the stock, four maintain Buy ratings, five hold Neutral positions, and two issue Sell recommendations. The consensus price target stands at $91.03, indicating roughly 6% upside potential from Friday’s close.
AST SpaceMobile’s current six-satellite constellation must expand substantially before the company can generate meaningful commercial revenue streams.
