TLDR
- Stock futures in the U.S. showed modest gains Monday following three consecutive weeks of market declines
- Crude oil surged past $100 per barrel due to Iran conflict blocking Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, stoking inflation concerns
- Federal Reserve rate announcement scheduled for Wednesday; Jerome Powell’s remarks expected to drive market direction
- Nvidia launches annual GTC developer conference Monday featuring CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote presentation
- Major earnings reports due from Micron, FedEx, Dollar Tree, and Alibaba throughout the week
U.S. equity futures displayed upward momentum Monday morning following Wall Street’s challenging previous week. Dow futures advanced 141 points, while S&P 500 futures added 33 points and Nasdaq 100 futures surged 131 points.
These increases came after three consecutive weekly declines across major indexes. The S&P 500 shed 1.6% during the prior week. The Dow declined 2%. The Nasdaq retreated 1.3%.
Crude oil prices have emerged as the primary catalyst behind recent market weakness. The Iranian conflict has now entered its third week with escalation continuing.
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping channel located south of Iran, facilitates approximately 14 million barrels of daily oil transport. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has declared its intention to prevent any oil passage through the waterway. This strait accounts for roughly one-fifth of worldwide tanker movements.
Oil temporarily exceeded $100 per barrel last Sunday, marking the first occurrence since Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion. Brent crude advanced 2.7% to $105.90 on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate increased 2.0% to $98.75.
President Trump reached out to seven nations over the weekend requesting assistance in securing the strait. He also pressed NATO members to participate in reopening the waterway. In comments to the Financial Times, Trump warned that inaction “will be a very bad for the future of NATO.”
Trump specifically called out China and indicated potential cancellation of the scheduled April summit with President Xi Jinping should Beijing fail to leverage its influence to reopen the waterway.
The International Energy Agency announced plans to release 411.9 million barrels from strategic reserves to mitigate potential supply disruptions.
Federal Reserve Decision in Focus
The Federal Open Market Committee convenes Wednesday. The Fed funds rate currently stands between 3.5% and 3.75%. Market participants assign near-complete probability to rates remaining steady.
Powell’s press conference following the rate decision may carry greater significance than the policy announcement itself. Certain Fed officials advocate for rate reductions citing employment market softness. Others express concern regarding potential oil-driven inflation acceleration. This press conference represents Powell’s penultimate public appearance before his chairmanship concludes in May.
Goldman Sachs projected that sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days could push Brent crude to an average of $93 per barrel during the fourth quarter.
Nvidia and Earnings Season
Nvidia’s GTC 2026 conference begins Monday. CEO Jensen Huang plans to introduce a new inference-optimized chip incorporating technology from Groq, a startup Nvidia purchased for $17 billion in December.
Micron Technology delivers earnings results Wednesday. The memory semiconductor manufacturer’s shares have climbed more than fourfold over the past twelve months. Previous quarterly results demonstrated a 60% year-over-year revenue increase.
FedEx announces results Thursday, alongside Alibaba. Dollar Tree also reports, providing insights into consumer spending patterns. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer Xpeng releases earnings Friday.
The Producer Price Index for February arrives Wednesday, following January data that revealed wholesale prices climbing beyond analyst expectations.
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