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Discuss: Car of the Future

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Name: Justin Weber
Date: March 27, 2009 at 13:02:39 Pacific
OS: Microsoft Windows 7 Ultimate
CPU/Ram: 2.527 GHz / 2046 MB
Subcategory: General
Comment:

Hi all,

This week's poll question is about the future of the automotive industry. Discuss here what you think about what the future holds, and, if you like, the poll results themselves.

Thanks!
Justin



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Response Number 1
Name: likelystory
Date: March 27, 2009 at 16:33:11 Pacific
Reply:

What I think will happen is we will bend over backwards and bail them out and we will get it in the end. The rear end!

What I think needs to happen is all that are begging for a bailout should be allowed to file bankruptsy and be auctioned off to others like Toyota.

Practice makes perfect but only if you practice perfectly!


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Response Number 2
Name: Radix-64
Date: March 27, 2009 at 18:56:27 Pacific
Reply:

For India and emerging economies, it appears that the future is now and in the form of the recently unveiled Tata Nano...Apparently there's a waiting list for the rear-mounted 623cc, 33bhp multi-point fuel injection engine that claims to do 50 mpg with a top speed of 65 mph. At $2.5k, it may very well be the world's cheapest car.


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Response Number 3
Name: 1stepbeyond
Date: March 28, 2009 at 12:21:25 Pacific
Reply:

The future of the automotive industry is pretty bleak in Western countries, even with the most efficient manufacturing techniques and high quality standards the labour costs are too high, also the transportation of parts from one country to another is a ridiculous way to manufacture anything,(UK &Europe ) JIT becomes a logistical nightmare.
Now add an even more uncertain future regarding the cost of Oil. There's a report out suggesting over the next 6 months another big rise in oil $/barrel is on its way.
(Amazingly Ford's just raised the price on there marques)

Eastern companies have the low labour costs so are by default going to outlast certain big brand companies wer'e used to seeing on the roads.

i watched a program about USA attitudes to smaller cars, interestingly the Prius was sold out at the height of the recent oil price rise but now theres less demand.
obviously i dont know how in the USA trends are followed but it would be interesting to know, given an average budget for a new car, what would you consider in engine size to replace what you have? would you go smaller more economical or take whatever you fancy, engine size not really an issue above a certain CC or cubic inch ;)

heres a fact given all the rising costs fuel, insurance, green issues etc in the UK
"The average engine capacity of all licensed cars in 2007 was 1,751 cc, an increase of 6 per cent over the average 10 years ago."



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Response Number 4
Name: likelystory
Date: March 28, 2009 at 13:14:23 Pacific
Reply:

When fuel costs were at their highest here in the U.S. I was driving a taxi for a bit trying to make a living. The vehicle I was driving got about 23 mpg in town and it was costing me about $80 per day in gas. I never thought I need a vehicle with a smaller more efficient engine. My thought was that the cost to produce a gallon of gas here was below $2 per gallon and I was forced to pay over $4 per gallon. Some where there was someones pockets getting lined. My bet is an elected official whos' family was heavily vested in the oil industry. My thought on all of this is if we start beheading corrupt members of government and greedy businessmen prices will plumit to where they truly should be. I understand inflation. I also understand that when the cost of oil and labour went up Exxon raised the prices not to account for the extra cost they had but to net and additional 348% in profits. How is that justified? Everyone is in business to make money but in my opinion that is price gouging on a global scale. Did exon employies salaries go up that much? I have a friend that works at a refinery in Texas his pay went up by 3.2% over three years. Were did the other 345% go?

Practice makes perfect but only if you practice perfectly!


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Response Number 5
Name: 1stepbeyond
Date: March 29, 2009 at 09:18:20 Pacific
Reply:

hi

23 mpg! wow , i dont think that would even be applicable over here, shows up the differing costs of petrol/gas well.

i only know one person with a car that does 20mpg,an import catalina and thats for summer use only.


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Response Number 6
Name: Curt R
Date: March 29, 2009 at 09:38:57 Pacific
Reply:

We've had the technology to be driving efficient electric vehicles for over 20 years.

There are many and various reasons quoted by different sources as to why we're not all driving electric vehicles right now but the one and only reason we're not is there are trillions of dollars to be made from oil yet and the oil industry (which we all know owns/runs the US governement) won't allow us to use that technology until they've squeezed every single penny from us they possibly can.

What we, and the automotive industry need is a way to break the stranglehold of the oil industry so that we can all be driving more efficient vehicles that pollute less.


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Response Number 7
Name: lurkswithin
Date: March 30, 2009 at 05:33:56 Pacific
Reply:

Curt R

I totally disagree with this. You blame a non entity for your problems...remember one thing cpaitalizm is the rule for any business. It will go to where the money is and only to where it is.

It is not up to them to change for you. You must change for them to change.

You want more economical cars such as electric and high efficiency...then change your needs and they will follow. If you want to drive around in luxury along with the rest then they are going to build to that. Where ever the money is is where they will go to. period. You can't blame others for your habits.

Change Is Good
http://www.citizenlink.org/Stopligh...


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Response Number 8
Name: likelystory
Date: March 30, 2009 at 19:34:22 Pacific
Reply:

I have to agree lurkswithin, if we didn't buy big gas gussling high powered heavy automobiles they would not build them. However at least three producers of electrics come to mind that through the help of the U.S. government were bought out and pushed away. A congressman actually tried to claim that " To mass produce a vehicle and market it to the public that did not depend on this countries main source of income would toppel the economy as we know it." Of course he is and was a major shareholder in exxon mobile.

Greed is the overall cause of this issue. To fix this problem though not only do we the consumer have to change but so does the government. Basically it has to be set that there is more profit to be made than by oil.

I am not a rich man. I would love to be driving an electric vehicle but it is not possible. There is nowhere here that I can buy one. Buying one over seas and bringing it here is just not cost effective to me. Sure it would be great in the long run. If the vehicle lasts then yes I would recoop the extra costs in fuel costs savings but, I would have to mogage myself to the hilt just to obtain the vehicle. It isn't worth it.

Hybrids are a joke. The best one on the road in the U.S. doesn't get that much better milage than my blazer does top offset the extra cost.

I agree the technology is there and has been for most of my life. And I agree that we as a group could change things but, let's be realistic. This would take a big leap on the part of the average consumer. A leap that could leave us homeless and broke if it doesn't happen quickly. On the other hand the wealthier people that could afford to do this would never attempt it. Where has their money come from? For the most part in this country either the oil industry or the auto industry. This is where the big money changes hands I don't care what the stock market does. Until one or both of these industries are brought to their knees nothing will change.

If I build an electric car tomorrow and show how I can sell it for say $2,000.00 a piece including a chaging station for your home the next day there will be reps from GM, Ford, Chrysler and Toyota at my door along with a goverment rep. The auto reps will hand me a check that is bigger than my wildest dreams and the gman will tell me if I sell it will be tax free. If I don't take it the following day there will be a new law on the books that will in some way stop me from producing my car legally. Check the auto industry laws and you will see why we don't have electric cars in this country.

Practice makes perfect but only if you practice perfectly!


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Response Number 9
Name: lurkswithin
Date: March 30, 2009 at 20:32:23 Pacific
Reply:

LOL
you sound as though you are involved in a conspiracy theoretical group. For someone professing computer experience you are a tad ill- informed as to the costs of things and how they work.

The biggest draw back for the auto dealerships is the retooling costs to re make dies and molds to fabricate a hybrid or all electric vehicle. it is where the American auto makers failed. They refused to go for the low efficiency models that could handle the lower torque from electric engines to maintain a decent ratio to transfer from motor to power train to road. The bigger luxurious cars and SUVs and Trucks are just too large to convert. Had they gone the other way and started retooling as did the foreign automakers then they would still be in the running to be able to provide the hybrids and electric cars. they erred in that decision and it is costing them dearly.

As for the oil companies, believe it or not, they could care less whether a car can run on electric power or gasoline or diesel fuels....
1) 40 percent of oil companies monies are derived from plastics, textile manufacturing and medicines.
2) 20 percent comes from lubricants and cleaners (soap such as Tide)
3) 40 percent comes from fuel production in which only about 10% of that is for gasoline and diesel products and jet fuel. Most is for heating oil and production of electricity.

E=mc squared. This cannot be gotten around.. so if they convert to electric batteries to be charged and used to run the cars then the same amount of energy must be produced through charging those batteries and this means that the oil and gas companies will just be maufacturing and selling those types of fuels instead. So they have no loss as you propose. There is still got to be energy produced to perform that purpose whether it be direct discharge of a combustion engine or that from charging and re-charging the batteries for electric cars. It still relates to the same amount of energy to be produced and generated. Actually it will cost more to run an electric car. The efficiency ratio is really bad to powering electric batteries = to fuel engines power ratios. In reality you will be paying more for the trip...just instead of paying a gas station you pay the electric company.

Blame the environmentalists that block the building of nuclear plants if you want to blame some one. That will reduce the use of fossil fuels more than anything else.

Change Is Good
http://www.citizenlink.org/Stopligh...


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Response Number 10
Name: likelystory
Date: March 30, 2009 at 22:51:08 Pacific
Reply:

Actually we have had electric cars in the past. One was prodused by GM but you could only get it on a two year lease. When I lived in California a neighbor had one. He said he was told that a forseen drawback would be power consumption due to air conditioning. He claimed the range was well over the 60 miles that the dealer told him, more like 105 miles. The only place he claimed he charged the vehicle was at home. His power bill went up $13 a month versus the $40 plus he was spending getting his Honda back and forth to work. There were obvious limitations but, it seemed to me they were the same as any other compact car. No you couldn't put 6 200 plus pound men in it comfortably. No it wouldn't run over 100 miles an hour. At that time if you were driving one of the cheaper imports that hard they wouldn't last anyway. No you couldn't just drive across country on a whim without planning. The largest problem I saw with his and several others was that after two years GM took them back and destroyed most of them. I never said the oil companies would make a dime less. I never said I thought they were blocking production. I felt, and I thought I implied, it was our own corrupt government that was blocking it.

I am a conspiracy nut lol. However a year or so after these cars were yanked off the road I read an article in one of my car magazines about a gentleman that was attempting to build his own electric car. It stated that in his research he was told that technology at the time was not adequate for battery production to power such a vehicle. I found that puzzeling. As only a few of the over 2,000 of the vehicles put out by GM repoted problems. However he continued on. After a while he discovered that he could use what was essentially about 300 laptop batteries to do the trick. After he jumped through the hoops to make this car street legal in California and people started taking notice too it a law was pushed through congress making it illiegal to produce and sell a vehicle powered by such types of batteries as they were deemed unsafe. I never read any where, and I have seen the law in it's entirety, that states anyone tested this method other than this man. How did they arrive at their opinions, and how was this law passed without any physical evidence? Yes I am a conspiracy nut! Yes it would be way to costly for GM to retool the production of their biggest SUVs to accomodate what would be needed for an electric powerplant. What about the several other much smaller lighter vehicles they produce? Not all the american made vehicles are giant gas guzzeling SUVs. There are many that could be retooled without a lot of fuss or expense. I never stated that all vehicles should be made this way or could be made this way. Nor did I state that it should happen in a day. Just that I can not afford to buy an electric car overseas and bring it here in an effort to make the fat, over bloated wealthy take notice that I am not going to buy their cars unless they change them.

Yes I am a conspiracy nut! That doesn't mean that there is no conspiracy.

Oh and I have done no research on this but I think your numbers are off. Judging solely by the amount of gasoline consumption in this country. I do believe if we cut it by just ten persent for two weeks somene in the oil industry would be screaming. I could be wrong though. I am a conspiracy nut afterall.

Practice makes perfect but only if you practice perfectly!


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Response Number 11
Name: Curt R
Date: March 31, 2009 at 15:21:11 Pacific
Reply:

LOL

I'm no "conspiracy nut" but over 40 years of living have taught me, "if it walks like a duck, sounds like a duck, then chances are it is a duck"

For those of you who were alive then, and can remember the 70's.....I ask you to simply look at the "oil crisis" we had then. Recall the long lines to get gasoline. Remember how we (the world) were short of crude oil and in danger of running out *gasp*

Here we are 30+ years later and we're still not out of oil. Was that whole shortage a scam by the oil companies to raise prices (which they did) to make them richer (which they did) or was it a real crisis? If you have enough brain power to pound sand in a pipe, then the answer is rather obvious.

Call me a conspiracy nut if it makes you feel better but the simple truth is, big business, and that includes the oil companies, own the politicians.

I hope I'm still alive when we actually do finally finish off the worlds oil supplies. There's no doubt in my mind we will "suddenly" find we have several viable, efficient alternatives to fossil fuels and I won't be the least bit surprised to discover that the same companies that now control oil, will also control those "new breakthroughs" (some of which 'broke' in the 70's and 80's)

One thing I'm absolutely sure of is that until the oil companies have bleed us for every single penny they can get, you won't see any real worthwhile technology that would make gasoline powered vehicles unnecessary become mainstream.


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Response Number 12
Name: lurkswithin
Date: April 1, 2009 at 09:46:48 Pacific
Reply:

Most definitely a conspiracy theorists LOL.

You really have no clue as to what sparked the fuel crisis in the 70's and the major oil companies had nothing to do with it.

First and foremost was the dissolution of basing monies on the gold standard ( Bretton Woods agreement ) which started in 1971. This led to world devaluations of money compared to product sold. At that time we were buying large quantities of oil from the Middle East because it was cheaper to do so than drill here. The Oil countries of the Middle East saw their revenues dropping because of the devaluation of the American Dollar . In an effort to raise the price to retain the same profit values they reduced oil production.
The second part of this was the 1973 Yon Kipper War where the United states backed Israel and the Arab countries took offense to it, and created an oil embargo against the United States.
The third part was the 1973 market crash caused by over inflation of paper money brought on by the world dissolution of the Gold Standard following the United States in 1971.

Those three things are what is written as the cause leading to the 1973/74 fuel crisis.
There never was a world shortage of oil...just reduced oil production brought on by OPEC
People misconstruing words is the only oil shortage. In fact in 2005 the National Geological Society just verified the largest oil fields ever found (world wide)to be located in North Central area of the United States.Estimated 2,500 gigabarrels of potentially recoverable oil. The problem is that it is shale oil and more costly to extract.
I guess that you and most of all of us will not see the last drop of oil produced. Nor will most of our grand children.

There are only 175 refineries that produce fuel in the United States. It is too costly to build new ones because of the air quality standards that must be met. Our gas prices fluctuate so much because the loss of any one causes a shortage and the slack must be taken up by the others. This also goes for them shutting down during storms (as most are located in the coastal regions) and scheduled maintenance shutdowns...not to exclude disasters such as fires and explosions that shut down plants for long periods of time...in which case if compared you will find that in most cases the jumps in fuel markets is caused by those acts.

As for as the oil companies bleeding anyone out of their last dollar...well, you need not worry about it. The new Socialists States of America will cure that before any business ever has a chance to.

Change Is Good
http://www.citizenlink.org/Stopligh...


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Response Number 13
Name: Oberon
Date: April 1, 2009 at 12:02:45 Pacific
Reply:

"Hybrids are a joke. The best one on the road in the U.S. doesn't get that much better milage than my blazer does top offset the extra cost."

Misinformation is a great way to appear make a point, isn't it?

Prius costs $22,000 Mileage 48/45
Source: http://www.toyota.com/prius-hybrid/

Blazer: Discontinued, and so we have an apples to oranges comparison on price. But in 2004 they went for $21,740, and got 16/21mpg.
Source: http://trucks.about.com/od/2004suvp...

Assuming gas is $2/gallon and that all mileage is averaged between city and highway, and the $260 higher cost of the Prius (which ignores all inflation between 2004 and 2009) will be repaid after 3,640 miles driven, and after that you begin to save significantly on fuel costs over the Blazer.

Most people drive about 12-15 thousand miles per year, so you'll be ahead of the game after the first quarter of the year you buy the Prius, and will save significantly on fuel costs over the life of the vehicle.


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Response Number 14
Name: lurkswithin
Date: April 1, 2009 at 20:10:58 Pacific
Reply:

Oberon
Your math stinks really bad!

using your figures the 3,640 miles driven by both vehicles and allowing for the best possible milage.. come out to a cost of
Blazer.........$347
Prius..........$152
saving.........$197 in fuel costs for the same trip made
While that is a substantial savings in fuel it would still take the equivalent of driving 113 trips of 3640 miles to save enough on fuel to reimburse the buyer for the cost of the $22,000 price tag.
That is approximately 411000 miles.
That is about twice the lifetime miles of most cars driven today.

Change Is Good
http://www.citizenlink.org/Stopligh...


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Response Number 15
Name: audguy
Date: April 2, 2009 at 15:00:02 Pacific
Reply:

actually 'lurkswithin', oberon is correct in his calculations. u dont get a Blazer for free (meaning u wudnt have). so u gotta divide (22000-21740) by 197, and not 22K by 197.


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Response Number 16
Name: Radix-64
Date: April 2, 2009 at 17:25:14 Pacific
Reply:

The future of the automotive industry for Western economies and mature automotive industry markets may be as elemental as H20 and zero emissions.

But there's nothing elementary about the technology involved in creating the vehicles that are powered by hydrogen with CO2-free motoring.

And not having to find a place to plug-in to recharge the vehicle is an added bonus not only to the driver, but also to the overall community by not having to draw upon the electrical grid...What a polite technological advance...


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Response Number 17
Name: lurkswithin
Date: April 3, 2009 at 05:25:09 Pacific
Reply:

I mis-read the statement and see that he was only comparing the difference in price between the two and not what a return for the costs betwwen car and fuel savings would net.

Change Is Good
http://www.citizenlink.org/Stopligh...


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Response Number 18
Name: Sean OBrien
Date: April 3, 2009 at 13:26:02 Pacific
Reply:

I agree with Oberon hybrids are a disgrace and need to be taken off the road. A modern small capacity turbo diesel will easily beat a hybrid petrol on mpg, emissions and purchase price.

I mean just look at the new Lexus LS 600 Hybrid it is an amazing car, however its pointless and does nothing but clear the conscience of filthy rich business executives.

Changing the subject. Hydrogen is in my opinion the fuel of the future whether fuel cell or internal combustion.
I will be sad upon the death of the internal combustion engine, however the future is hydrogen fuel cell without a shadow of a doubt.

BMW have been producing hydrogen powered internal combustion engines for a while now and they are fitted to the 7 series. They are however very expensive and fuel stations are few and far between.

The biggest hurdle for hydrogen fuel, is implementing the infrastructure necessary for producing and storing the fuel.

To generate hydrogen electricity is needed to separate the hydrogen from water (H2O)
1x Hydrogen + 2x Oxygen = Water

Pass electricity through water using a process called electrolysis and the hydrogen is separated from the water and visa versa.

When hydrogen is burned in an internal combustion engine it reacts with oxygen in the atmosphere and produces water, heat and pressure. This is what powers the engine, much in the same way as a conventional IC engine.

In a fuel cell hydrogen is not burned but reacted in a complicated process and produces DC electricity, water and heat. This in turn powers an electric motor which turns the wheels ect...

Back to the point. If hydrogen is to become a green fuel then it must be produced using electricity from a green/renewable source i.e. Wind, Hydro, Wave, Solar, geothermal, ect...
Not Coal, Oil, Gas, Nuclear or Bio mass

Also I understand the big stress over going green. But when the developing world such as india, china, africa are building more fossil fuel power stations than any other, it sort of cancels the developed countries efforts on reducing carbon emissions.

Global warming is happening and no one can stop it. And the developing worlds have no priorities in protecting the planet.

Regards Sean from Liverpool, UK


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Response Number 19
Name: likelystory
Date: April 3, 2009 at 16:57:30 Pacific
Reply:

I paid $5,000 for my 1999 used Chevy Blazer. I keep it well tuned. I get on the average 23 miles to the gallon. I don't do much highway driving. My neighbor has a brand new Prius she says she gets between 29 an 33 miles to the gallon. Now these figures are most likely off a bit as they are gathered by real people on real city streets not by company paid test drivers on a closed course. Now I do agree regardless of vehicle costs that she is saving money at the pump compared to me no matter what milage she gets. Howver have you recently tried to put a family of five plus a dog in a Prius to go on a picnic? Or have you encounterd water flowing across the road in front of you in your Prius while on your way to work? We have had a heck of a week here for rain. My neighbors brand new Prius is now in the shop for flood damage. I took her to work this morning in my blazer because her hubby had to work out of town this week.

Anyway I do not see that big a savings between my milage and hers and I surely do not see a difference in between the hybrid and any other small light 4 cylinder vehicle. Does it get better milage than my 1987 Monte Carlo SS? A whole bunch. That vehicle gets about 4.5 miles per gallon but it is not a factory automobile either. It has a 650 horse engine in it. It passes everything on the highway except a gas staion lol.

Practice makes perfect but only if you practice perfectly!


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Response Number 20
Name: Radix-64
Date: April 8, 2009 at 09:41:16 Pacific
Reply:

What do you think about the marriage of the technology between Segway and GM that is all over the news?

I think it might someday be useful for a niche segment, but it is certainly not the panacea for the main segment of the world's future and existing transportation needs.


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Response Number 21
Name: likelystory
Date: April 10, 2009 at 05:08:38 Pacific
Reply:

My neighbor got her flooded Prius back yesterday. She didn't tell me how high the cost was just that her insurance company is trying to avoid paying for it. The shop told her at one time she should have the insurance company total it and go buy another. She said that was just not an option. She is thinking of selling it now.

Practice makes perfect but only if you practice perfectly!


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