TLDR
- Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings report scheduled for March 5, 2026
- Year-to-date gains of 13.6% for COST shares following a ~6% decline in 2025
- Wall Street forecasts $4.55 EPS versus $4.02 last year, plus revenue reaching $69.25 billion
- Strong Buy rating from analysts with $1,081.57 average price target
- Forward P/E ratio stands at 49.6, significantly higher than sector average of 18.9
Costco approaches its fiscal second-quarter earnings announcement on March 5 with significant positive momentum.
Following a roughly 6% decline throughout 2025, COST shares have staged an impressive comeback — gaining 13.6% year-to-date in 2026. This type of rebound tends to capture Wall Street’s attention.
Costco Wholesale Corporation, COST
Wall Street expects Q2 earnings of $4.55 per share, representing a notable increase from $4.02 during the comparable quarter last year. Revenue projections point to $69.25 billion, marking a 10% year-over-year jump.
Recent sales figures paint an optimistic picture heading into the earnings announcement. January delivered approximately $21 billion in net sales, representing 9.3% growth compared to the prior year.
Throughout the initial 22 weeks of fiscal 2026, sales expanded 8.5% year-over-year. Comparable sales have demonstrated consistent growth across different geographic markets.
Digital commerce has emerged as a particularly strong performer. Online sales have posted double-digit percentage increases, though any deceleration in this channel might concern shareholders.
Membership expansion represents another critical metric investors will scrutinize. Growing membership numbers — partly attributed to inflation driving consumers toward value-oriented retailers — have provided consistent support. Kirkland Signature, the retailer’s private label brand, remains instrumental in building customer loyalty and defending market position.
Analyst Views
Bank of America analyst Christopher Nardone maintained his Buy rating on COST before the earnings release and established a $1,185 price target. He highlights Costco’s broad demographic appeal — attracting affluent shoppers while simultaneously serving budget-conscious customers through competitive pricing.
Citi’s Steven Zaccone adopted a more reserved position, keeping a Hold rating while modestly increasing his price target from $990 to $1,000.
Wall Street’s overall sentiment reflects a Strong Buy consensus, supported by 19 Buy ratings, four Holds, and one Sell. The $1,081.57 average price target suggests roughly 7% upside potential from present levels. The most optimistic Street forecast reaches $1,205, implying nearly 20% appreciation.
The Valuation Question
Costco’s 10-year total return of 662% has outperformed the S&P 500 by more than double. Revenue has expanded at a 9.3% compound annual growth rate over the past five years, with consistent yearly increases throughout this period.
This exceptional performance commands a premium valuation. COST currently carries a forward P/E ratio of 49.6, while the sector average sits at 18.9. The trailing P/E multiple reaches 53.6 — approximately 15% above Nvidia’s valuation.
This premium pricing concerns some market participants. Any disappointment in comparable sales figures or membership growth metrics could trigger substantial selling pressure.
Q1 2026 produced $66 billion in net sales. The retailer’s business model — purchasing massive quantities of a curated product selection — provides leverage with suppliers and enables competitive consumer pricing.
