Key Highlights
- Morgan Stanley’s ETrade platform has entered discussions to manage SpaceX’s retail IPO allocation, according to Reuters reporting
- Sources indicate SpaceX may completely remove Robinhood and SoFi from participating in the offering, though negotiations remain fluid
- Bernstein SocGen reduced HOOD’s price objective from $160 down to $130 while maintaining its Outperform rating
- Analysts anticipate 25% earnings per share expansion in 2026 alongside a 30% revenue compound annual growth rate spanning 2025 through 2027
- Shares currently trade approximately 54% beneath the 52-week peak of $153.86
Robinhood faces mounting pressure as shares settled at $66.02, representing a decline exceeding 50% from recent highs. Monday delivered a one-two punch: troubling IPO news combined with analyst target adjustments.
According to Reuters, Morgan Stanley’s ETrade division has positioned itself as the leading candidate to distribute retail shares for SpaceX’s forthcoming public offering. This development places ETrade ahead of Robinhood and SoFi, both of which have actively campaigned for involvement in what analysts consider potentially the largest IPO on record.
SpaceX management is evaluating whether to completely exclude both platforms from participating in the transaction. Industry sources emphasized that arrangements remain preliminary and subject to modification ahead of the anticipated launch later this year.
The possible exclusion carries significant implications. Robinhood and SoFi previously secured meaningful positions in notable offerings including Arm Holdings’ $55 billion listing and Instacart’s $9.9 billion market debut during 2023. Losing access to SpaceX represents a consequential setback—one that affects retail investor access and undermines Robinhood’s positioning as the primary destination for major public offerings.
Neither platform maintains relationships with the investment banks managing the SpaceX underwriting. Morgan Stanley, serving as a principal underwriter, plans to direct substantial retail allocation volume through ETrade, the brokerage it purchased in 2020.
Bernstein SocGen Adjusts Valuation
Also Monday, Bernstein SocGen revised its HOOD price objective downward from $160 to $130, attributing the change to valuation considerations. The research firm preserved its Outperform designation, signaling continued confidence in the stock’s prospects despite the reduced target.
The updated forecast incorporates a lower earnings multiple: 35 times projected 2027 EPS, compared with the previous 40 times multiple. This calculation derives from an anticipated 32% earnings per share CAGR spanning 2025 through 2027.
The adjustment aside, the analyst’s fundamental assessment of Robinhood’s operational performance remains constructive. The firm forecasts 25% EPS expansion during 2026, accounting for subdued first-quarter activity in both equity and cryptocurrency markets. Revenue growth is projected to maintain a 30% CAGR through 2027.
Prediction markets represent an emerging revenue catalyst. Bernstein SocGen estimates these platforms will generate approximately 17% of trading revenue and 10% of overall revenue during 2026, bolstered by Robinhood’s Kalshi distribution partnership and its Rothera exchange infrastructure.
Additional Analyst Perspectives
Cryptocurrency trading appears positioned for recovery. The firm’s model anticipates 79% year-over-year volume improvement during the second half of 2026, facilitated by the Bitstamp acquisition.
Non-trading revenue streams are projected to expand 27% year-over-year. Components include margin lending operations on a $17.2 billion portfolio, Gold subscription services reaching 4.2 million members, and banking deposit balances surpassing $1 billion.
Wall Street analysts maintain varied outlooks. Barclays carries an Overweight rating with a $124 price objective. Truist assigns a Buy rating at $120. Jefferies recently initiated coverage with a Buy recommendation and an $88 target. Cantor Fitzgerald adopted a more conservative stance, reducing its target to $95 based on adjusted revenue projections.
Robinhood’s board recently authorized a $1.5 billion share repurchase program, generating favorable commentary from multiple research firms.
The stock presently trades at a P/E ratio of 32.25 with a market capitalization reaching $59.44 billion.
