TLDR
- BTC retraced to $79,800 following a rejection at the $82,800 resistance level
- Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows for the week reached $1.105 billion — the strongest performance since January
- Critical support zone identified between $76,000 and $78,000, coinciding with the 200-day EMA
- Ali Charts emphasizes $80,300 as a vital whale cost basis threshold for market direction
- Glassnode highlights $85,200 as the upcoming significant resistance barrier
Bitcoin slipped beneath the $80,000 threshold on Thursday following a rejection at $82,800, reaching an intraday low of $79,800. This pullback occurred even as ETF inflows posted their strongest weekly performance in months, exceeding $1 billion for the first time since January.
Technical indicators revealed bearish divergences across both the one-hour and four-hour RSI timeframes, suggesting diminishing buying pressure. Such divergences emerge when price action registers higher peaks while the RSI indicator trends downward—typically indicating weakening upward momentum.
Crypto analyst Jelle noted the 200-day moving average and EMA cluster functioning as overhead resistance, while marking $78,000 as the primary support area. Trader Killa XBT identified a secondary support band ranging from $76,300 to $74,700 should downward pressure intensify.
The weekly opening price at $78,500 serves as the immediate line of defense for bullish participants. Beneath this threshold, a daily fair value gap spanning $76,000 to $78,000 coincides with the 200-day EMA, establishing a probable retest area.
The $80,300 Whale Level
Analyst Ali Charts emphasized $80,300 as the most significant level currently under observation. This price point corresponds to the average acquisition cost for new whale entities—addresses that accumulated Bitcoin over the past 155 days.
Trading below $80,300 places these whale holders in negative territory. Bitcoin momentarily climbed to $82,800 before retreating beneath this threshold. Sustained trading below $80,300 could prompt these whales to liquidate positions at breakeven, potentially intensifying downward momentum.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs documented five consecutive days of positive net inflows through Wednesday, accumulating $1.69 billion—marking the longest streak since July 2025. Wednesday’s session alone contributed $46.3 million.
Glassnode reported that Bitcoin has successfully moved above two significant onchain benchmarks: the True Market Mean at $78,200 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $79,100. Positioning above both metrics returns most active participants to profitable territory.
ETF Demand and the Road to $85,200
Swissblock analytics indicate the Bitcoin Risk Index has reset approaching zero, while ETF net flows shifted positive at approximately 3,000 BTC. Swissblock states, “ETF demand is absorbing selling pressure. This remains a flow-driven breakout.”
Santiment analytics revealed Bitcoin’s wallet count decreased by 245,000 addresses over five days—the sharpest contraction in nearly two years. Santiment observed this pattern resembles the June–July 2024 sequence where over 964,000 wallets departed before a substantial rally commenced.
Perpetual futures funding rates maintain negative territory despite a 26% bounce from February lows, indicating persistent short-seller activity. Glassnode observed long-term holders realizing approximately $180 million daily in gains—characterized as measured rather than aggressive distribution.
Glassnode’s subsequent target sits at the Active Realized Price of $85,200, representing the cost basis for all actively circulating supply. This zone represents where heightened selling pressure typically emerges.
Bitcoin traded marginally below $80,000 during Thursday’s U.S. trading session. Glassnode emphasized that a decisive move above $85,200, supported by sustained spot market demand, remains necessary to validate the recovery as structurally sound.
