Key Takeaways
- Wedbush analyst Dan Ives selected Palantir as his leading software choice beyond the Magnificent Seven, characterizing Q4 performance as “stunning”
- The AI revolution remains in early stages—approximately “third inning”—with U.S. government contracts potentially scaling to trillions of dollars
- Roughly $20M in revenue moved from commercial to government classification, which Ives characterized as a non-recurring adjustment
- PLTR shares have declined over 17% in 2026 yet trade beneath five-year historical averages across multiple valuation metrics, carrying a 132x forward P/E
- Analyst consensus stands at “Moderate Buy” with average price target of $195.04, suggesting approximately 32% appreciation potential
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives appeared on CNBC with strong conviction about Palantir’s positioning. He identified the company as his preferred software investment outside the Magnificent Seven while emphasizing extended growth potential in the broader AI landscape.
Palantir Technologies Inc., PLTR
Ives employed a baseball metaphor—describing the current AI cycle as “third inning”—to counter mounting bubble speculation in the marketplace. His perspective: the AI transformation is gaining momentum rather than reaching exhaustion.
PLTR shares have fallen more than 17% during 2026. Ives characterized the company’s latest quarterly performance as “stunning” and placed Palantir in “a whole other category” relative to comparable software enterprises.
The equity has retreated from elevated valuations, currently trading beneath its five-year historical average across several metrics. The forward P/E multiple of 132x remains premium territory, however.
Palantir delivered Q4 fiscal 2025 revenue of $1.41 billion—representing 70% year-over-year expansion. U.S. revenue reached $1.08 billion, advancing 93% compared to the prior-year period.
Full-year 2025 revenue totaled $4.475 billion, climbing 56% year-over-year. GAAP EPS for Q4 registered at $0.24, with full-year GAAP EPS arriving at $0.63.
Commercial Revenue Concerns Addressed
One criticism of Palantir’s recent quarter centered on commercial revenue underperforming expectations. Ives addressed this promptly—approximately $20 million shifted from commercial to government through a single deal reclassification.
He presented this as an accounting adjustment rather than fundamental weakness. Government AI demand, according to his analysis, represents the narrative investors should prioritize.
Ives described U.S. government AI expenditure as “the golden goose.” He projected contracts could reach hundreds of billions, with extended-term possibilities extending into trillions.
“For a lot of these software companies, government business could double over the next two or three years,” Ives stated on CNBC.
Cybersecurity Demand and Agentic AI Expansion
Ives highlighted cybersecurity as a primary beneficiary of AI infrastructure expansion. He projected security budgets could increase 50% as agentic AI creates more sophisticated threat environments.
He characterized this as “the most connected trade” he had observed—indicating the AI infrastructure buildout and corresponding security expenditure are deeply intertwined.
Regarding regulatory oversight, Ives expressed doubt that policy frameworks would materially constrain industry momentum. He noted technological advancement was outpacing any regulatory structure’s capacity to respond.
Palantir’s forward outlook indicated Q1 2026 revenue between $1.532–$1.536 billion. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance spans $7.182–$7.198 billion.
U.S. commercial revenue alone carries a projection exceeding $3.144 billion for the complete year.
Rosenblatt Securities maintained a Buy rating on PLTR with a $200 price objective on April 24. Mizuho preserved its Outperform rating while adjusting its target from $195 down to $185.
Across 28 analysts, the consensus reaches “Moderate Buy” with a mean price objective of $195.04—approximately 32% above present trading levels.
