Key Takeaways
- Nebius releases Q1 earnings May 13, with analysts projecting revenue between $375–389 million, representing year-over-year growth of approximately 578–600%
- Shares have climbed more than 120% in 2025 and approximately 554% over 12 months, currently trading near record levels around $196
- Contract backlog totals $46 billion, featuring a $27 billion Meta partnership and $19.4 billion Microsoft supply arrangement
- The company completed a $643 million acquisition of AI startup Eigen AI, marking its second deal in under 90 days
- Wall Street sentiment remains bullish with 8 of 10 analysts assigning Buy ratings; Goldman Sachs targets $205
Nebius approaches its first quarter financial release on May 13 with shares hovering near record territory and significant analyst attention. The stock currently changes hands around $196, marking a dramatic climb from below $27 twelve months ago.
Wall Street consensus calls for quarterly revenue landing between $375–389 million, representing a year-over-year expansion of roughly 578–600%. Profitability remains elusive at this stage. Analysts anticipate a per-share loss of $0.77, widening from $0.41 reported in the same quarter of 2025.
While top-line figures capture attention, investor focus will center on operational execution: specifically, how effectively Nebius converts its massive $46 billion contract pipeline into tangible operating cash generation.
This contract foundation rests on three cornerstone agreements. The largest comes from Meta, secured in March, totaling $27 billion. This arrangement allocates $12 billion toward dedicated AI computing infrastructure across five years beginning early 2027, with an additional $15 billion option available for expansion clusters. Microsoft contributes a $19.4 billion supply commitment, while Nvidia has made a $2 billion strategic investment.
Capital deployment plans for 2026 reach substantial scale — ranging from $16 billion to $20 billion. Leadership indicates that committed contract funds will finance approximately 60% of this investment. A recent $4.34 billion convertible bond issuance provides additional financial flexibility.
Full-year 2026 guidance points toward revenue landing between $3 billion and $3.4 billion. Management’s extended outlook targets an annualized revenue run rate of $7–9 billion by December 2026, representing significant acceleration from the $1.25 billion run rate recorded at year-end 2025.
Q4 2025 delivered a meaningful operational milestone: adjusted EBITDA reached positive territory for the first time at $15 million, contrasting with a roughly $64 million deficit in the prior-year period. The AI cloud division generated a 24% adjusted EBITDA margin.
Strategic Move: Eigen AI Deal
Just two weeks ahead of the earnings announcement, Nebius revealed plans to acquire Eigen AI, a 20-member team of MIT graduates, for $643 million. Transaction terms include up to $98 million in cash consideration plus 3.8 million Class A shares.
Eigen brings specialized expertise in post-training optimization for open-source language models — including quantization techniques, KV-cache enhancements, and custom CUDA kernel development. Joint work between the teams has already produced optimized implementations of DeepSeek, Llama, and Qwen models, achieving output velocities reaching 911 tokens per second.
This technology will integrate directly into Nebius’ Token Factory platform. The acquisition represents the company’s second purchase within three months, following February’s $275 million Tavily transaction. Both strategic moves signal Nebius’ evolution beyond pure infrastructure provision toward higher-margin platform service offerings.
Analyst Perspectives
Goldman Sachs elevated its price objective to $205 following announcement of the Meta partnership, increasing 2027–2030 revenue projections by 30–54%, while maintaining its Buy recommendation.
Wolfe Research launched coverage with a Neutral stance and fair value band of $80–$170, acknowledging compelling demand dynamics while highlighting execution and capital structure uncertainties. Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and $129 target. Freedom Capital Markets shifted to Hold following a 70% rally from its February recommendation.
Currently, eight of ten sell-side analysts maintain Buy ratings on NBIS. The consensus price target stands at $174.33.
Institutional ownership registers at 22%. Millennium Management established a fresh position, UBS expanded its stake, and Oppenheimer increased holdings by approximately 91% during Q4.
The earnings conference call commences at 8 a.m. Eastern Time on May 13.
