Key Takeaways
- CoreWeave shares have declined approximately 28% following the February 26 Q4 earnings release
- Q1 revenue outlook of $1.9B–$2B came in below the $2.29B consensus estimate
- Full-year FY26 revenue guidance of $12B–$13B exceeded the $12B analyst projection
- Contract backlog expanded from $55.6B to $66.8B, representing 342% annual growth
- Citi reduced its price target to $126 from $135 while revising FY26 EPS projection to ($2.97) from $0.75
CoreWeave released Q4 earnings results after market close on February 26, triggering an immediate and severe market response.
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock, CRWV
Shares fell as much as 21% during Friday’s trading session following the announcement. The downward pressure persisted through the subsequent week. By Tuesday, March 3, CRWV had declined an additional 7% in early-morning trading, resulting in a cumulative drop of approximately 28% since the earnings release.
Fourth-quarter revenue reached $1.57B, representing 110% year-over-year growth and surpassing analyst projections. This positive performance proved insufficient to counterbalance other concerning metrics.
Management issued Q1 revenue guidance of $1.9B–$2B. This forecast fell significantly short of Wall Street’s $2.29B consensus expectation, creating the primary source of investor concern.
For the complete fiscal year, CoreWeave projected FY26 revenue between $12B–$13B, modestly surpassing the $12B average analyst estimate. The contract backlog expanded from $55.6B to $66.8B — representing 342% annual growth.
Expanding Losses and Capital Spending Create Headwinds
Q4 net losses totaled $284M, rising substantially from $36M during the equivalent period last year. Per-share losses reached $0.89, significantly worse than the consensus expectation of a $0.21 loss.
Interest expenses for Q4 climbed to $388M, compared with $149M in the prior-year quarter. This increase represents a substantial obstacle to achieving profitability.
FY26 CapEx guidance was elevated to $30B–$35B, exceeding the $14.9B invested during FY25 by more than double.
CEO Michel Intrator discussed the CapEx increase during the earnings conference call. He explained that capital deployment aligns directly with contracted customer demand, referencing the $66.8B backlog as justification.
He emphasized that all new capacity contracts are projected to start producing revenue before the conclusion of 2026.
Approximately 70% of the backlog involves financially sound, lower-risk customers. CoreWeave’s two primary customers are Meta and Microsoft, both of which have announced significant CapEx expansion plans for this year.
OpenAI, another significant customer, secured $110B in funding last week, alleviating some worries about circular financing arrangements.
CoreWeave concluded FY25 with 850 MW of operational power capacity. Contracted power reached 3.1 GW. The company aims to bring 1.7 GW of active power online by the close of 2026, and secure 5 GW in contracted footprint by 2030.
Wall Street Response
Citi Research responded rapidly to the results, reducing financial projections substantially.
Analyst Tyler Radke revised the FY26 EPS estimate downward to ($2.97) from $0.75, and adjusted the FY27 EPS projection to ($1.74) from $3.11.
Citi also lowered its CRWV price target to $126 from $135.
The firm stated it aligned Q1 revenue and operating income projections with management guidance, considering the Q4 shortfall and the Q1 forecast arriving near consensus with approximately two-thirds of the quarter complete.
Prior to the earnings-driven decline, CRWV traded at a forward EV/Sales multiple of 12.56x. That valuation metric has since contracted to approximately 5–6x based on 2026 revenue projections.
Shares had actually gained roughly 9% the Tuesday preceding the earnings announcement, following Trump’s State of the Union address, before surrendering those gains entirely and declining further.
