Key Takeaways
- Micron shares have declined approximately 20% following Q2 earnings released March 18, amid concerns about Google’s TurboQuant compression technology
- Vijay Rakesh from Mizuho retained his Outperform rating alongside a $530 price objective, viewing the decline as an entry point
- DRAM average selling prices climbed in the mid-60% range during Q2, while NAND ASPs increased in the high-70% range, demonstrating robust pricing strength
- Wall Street remains divided: certain analysts view the selloff as irrational, while others highlight concentration risks and pricing sustainability questions
- Over the trailing twelve months, Micron shares have surged 324%, surpassing performance from Nvidia, AMD, TSMC, and Broadcom
The past several weeks have brought significant volatility for Micron. Following one of the semiconductor industry’s most impressive rallies — climbing 324% year-over-year — the memory chip manufacturer encountered resistance. Google’s introduction of TurboQuant, a lossless compression algorithm, triggered investor concerns about potential reductions in DRAM and NAND requirements. Markets responded swiftly.
Following Micron’s second-quarter earnings release on March 18, shares have declined approximately 20%. This represents a significant pullback for a company recently celebrated as a cornerstone of the artificial intelligence investment thesis.
The downturn stems from a specific concern: if Google’s TurboQuant enables superior data compression while maintaining model performance, major cloud providers may require less physical memory for AI operations. Reduced DRAM and NAND consumption would undermine Micron’s pricing leverage. Multiple analysts have questioned this reasoning.
Vijay Rakesh at Mizuho mounted a strong counterargument. He retained Outperform ratings for both Micron and Sandisk (SNDK), establishing price objectives of $530 and $710 respectively. Rakesh referenced the Jevons paradox — an economic principle suggesting that efficiency gains frequently drive increased consumption rather than decreased usage. He offered an illustration: following DeepSeek’s 2025 debut that initially pressured GPU equities, AI infrastructure investment subsequently intensified.
Rakesh additionally noted that Google’s TurboQuant research itself could enable development of more sophisticated models and accelerated inference capabilities, which would continue demanding significant memory resources. He characterizes the recent selloff as an excessive market response.
Examining the Financial Performance
Micron’s second-quarter results demonstrated strength. DRAM bit shipments increased by mid-single digits sequentially, while average selling prices jumped in the mid-60% range. NAND bit shipments expanded by low-single digits, accompanied by ASP growth in the high-70% range. These substantial pricing gains reflect constrained supply rather than explosive volume expansion.
Seeking Alpha analyst Oliver Rodzianko highlighted this pattern. He noted that Micron faces greater supply constraints than demand limitations, with management projecting tight DRAM and NAND supply-demand balance extending past 2026. His primary question centers on how much of Micron’s profitability derives from elevated pricing versus fundamental structural advantages.
Should pricing revert toward historical norms, profit margins face compression risk. Rodzianko additionally raised concentration concerns: Micron maintains heavy exposure to hyperscaler capital expenditure, meaning any slowdown in that spending would create immediate stock pressure.
Optimistic Analysts Emphasize AI Infrastructure Growth
Analyst Dmytro Lebid presented a more optimistic perspective. He characterized the selloff as reflecting “irrational investor behavior” and suggested markets are overweighting slowdown probabilities. From his standpoint, hyperscaler demand for HBM3E memory remains robust, while Micron’s supply-constrained status supports healthy margins.
Nvidia’s continuing demand trajectory alone should provide durable support for Micron’s pricing structure, according to his analysis.
Micron continues expanding production capabilities across Idaho, Tongluo, and Singapore through 2027–2028 — representing a strategic commitment that AI-driven memory consumption will maintain upward momentum.
During early April 2026, Micron traded near $366, carrying a market capitalization around $413 billion with a 52-week trading range spanning $61.54 to $471.34.
