Forecasting Fraud losses in Excel

February 23, 2009 at 20:22:24
Specs: Windows XP

I am looking to forecast fraud levels for personal loans over the next twelve months using excel. I have data of losses occurred in th epast twelve months and also first payment defaults throughout the same period.

Can anybody provide me a step by step guide in producing this forecast or a formula that I can use?

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February 24, 2009 at 00:35:31
This is a bad time to do loss forecasting.
Traditionally you would estimate the rate of
change of the loss estimate per month and
project it forward. The value may be
seasonally adjusted. I would use an
increasing value, factoring employment,
bankruptcy, etc.

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